Reliable Britain
What Britain’s electricity would have cost on gas
In preparation. The summary, the report and the technical paper will be released together, once they have cleared review.
Why it matters
Every household in Britain pays for electricity, and every bill mixes two costs: the cost of the power, and the cost of changing how that power is made. The Government no longer publishes an estimate of the second. When bills rose, the usual answer was that it was gas, not net zero. This study tests that answer.
What it asks
What would Britain’s electricity have cost if the country had stayed on the road it was on in 2002?
How it answers
It sets two full bills side by side for every year from 2002 to 2024. One is the bill Britain actually paid, almost all of it measured. The other is a modelled bill for the same electricity on that road, because that road was never taken. The model and its data are open, apart from licensed inputs, each listed with its publisher. Errors can be reported, and each correction will be logged in public.
What it concludes
Gas is not the whole answer. Both bills face the same gas market, so when gas got dearer, both bills rose. The difference between them is the cost of changing how the power is made, and on the model, net zero added substantially to Britain’s electricity bills.
Summary
The question, the answer and the key points, in two pages.
Report
The finding in twenty pages.
Technical paper
Every sum, source and judgement behind the finding.
Model and data
On release day, the model code, input data and results are published so anyone can rerun them; data that cannot be republished is linked.
Coming with the release.
Versions
| Version | Date | What | |
|---|---|---|---|
| No version released yet. | |||
Corrections
Errors may be sent to corrections@richardlyon.net. Each is logged here, dated and credited.
| Date | Where | What was wrong | Effect | Found by |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| None yet. | ||||
How to cite
Coming with the release.